AI 2025 Forecasting Survey

In light of the discourse about whether AI scaling is hitting a wall and whether we will reach AGI soon, we've created this survey to track key markers of AI progress in what might turn out to be a pivotal year.

By pre-registering your expectations for AI in 2025, we can collectively make better sense of the progress that ends up materializing. See the Summary tab to see all your predictions at once in a shareable way.

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All questions are optional. Your answers are saved as you go – no need to submit!

Survey Questions

You can also forecast on these questions on Manifold and Metaculus .

Your predictions will be private by default – we'll only share summary statistics or anonymized data

If you score well, we may include your predictions on a leaderboard when the questions resolve. By default we will use a randomly generated ID that we'll share with you, unless you opt in to having your name displayed by checking the box below. Either way we will not share any associated rationales you may choose to enter.

Opt in to have your name on the public leaderboard

Optional Background Questions

By what year do you think there's a 50% probability that there will be High Level Machine Intelligence which can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers?

Ignore aspects of tasks for which being a human is intrinsically advantageous, e.g. being accepted as a jury member. Think feasibility, not adoption. For the purposes of this question, assume that human scientific activity continues without major negative disruption. This definition is the same as Grace et al., (2024) except for the restriction to cognitive tasks.

How likely do you think it is that overall, the impact of High Level Machine Intelligence will be extremely negative for humanity in the long run?

By "extremely negative" we mean something like human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of human civilization. By "in the long run" we mean over hundreds or thousands of years. This question is taken from Grace et al., (2024)

How many years of professional or academic experience do you have in the field of AI?