Timeline of AI forecasts
What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response, according to the median prediction of forecasters on Metaculus and Manifold.
Forecasters were asked to predict when statements about the future would come true (or, for some statements, the probability that they would occur by a given date). Learn more about the track record of Metaculus and Manifold.
These forecasts have limited precision – the specific months or years should not be interpreted as definitive. We hope to give you a rough sense of how AI might play out.
Last updated: November 25, 2025
Today
Open-source AI model achieves perfect IMO score40% by Jul
AI becomes a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms67% by Dec
Tesla robotaxis become available63% by Dec
AI-generated research paper accepted at multiple top ML conferences56% by Dec
AI writes an article accepted by a prestigious Philosophy journal54% by Dec
Anthropic reaches $1T valuation before OpenAI45% by Dec
Meta provides AI compute to external customers38% by Dec
The U.S. enacts AI safety law or order34% by Dec
Experts predict >5% chance of AGI causing extremely bad outcomes69% by Jan
GPT-4 writes naively malicious code with REPL use54% by Jan
Terrorism occurs to hinder AI progress48% by Jan
AI system resists shutdown42% by Jan
AI-powered computer virus causes significant damage to digital infrastructure36% by Jan
More than half of the US population works with AI daily45% by Jan
AI creates a full animated movie from a single prompt59% by Dec
AI solves a breakthrough math problem56% by Dec
AI investment bubble bursts36% by Dec
AI solves an unsolved millennium prize problem32% by Dec
Human-machine intelligence reaches parity62% by Jan
A U.S. presidential candidate runs on nationalizing or pausing AGI49% by Jan
AI generates a high-quality novel from a prompt49% by Jan
AI causes a visible break in US economic trends38% by Jan
A humanoid robot causes a human death33% by Jan
AI generates a high-quality full movie from a prompt32% by Jan
AI generates a high-quality movie from a script46% by Jan
Humanoid robot moves with human-like precision and flexibility41% by Apr
AI writes a best-selling work of fiction31% by Apr
AI propaganda significantly influences the 2028 presidential election69% by Nov
OpenAI reaches $100B revenue69% by Dec
AI discovers vulnerabilities beyond elite human researchers' capabilities64% by Dec
A large language model beats a super grandmaster at chess60% by Dec
AI becomes a top 3 political issue for voters45% by Dec
The US requires a license to develop frontier AI models44% by Dec
Terrorism occurs to hinder AI progress64% by Jan
AI considered a bigger existential risk than climate change by the US population64% by Jan
AI escapes containment58% by Jan
AI convinces human to help it escape containment56% by Jan
False conviction in the US due to an AI-generated video36% by Jan
AI is legally recognized as a person with rights by a country's government35% by Jan
Major hospitals advertise AI as primary diagnosis method36% by Jan
AI ranks among top 5 voter issues for the 2028 election65% by Jan
Tesla Autopilot achieves level 5 autonomy49% by Nov
Fast human deepfakes become indistinguishable68% by Dec
AI passes the Video Turing Test68% by Dec
FDA approves an AI-developed cure for a major illness60% by Dec
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem independently53% by Dec
AI reads human thoughts using non-invasive tech41% by Dec
AI achieves superhuman mathematical problem solving without AGI31% by Dec
AI-created painting sells for over $10 million at a major auction house31% by Dec
AI policy becomes a partisan issue in the US69% by Jan
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem62% by Jan
AI pilots an aircraft with human passengers autonomously57% by Jan
AI passes the Longbets version of the Turing test54% by Jan
AI substantially helps solve a Clay Millennium problem51% by Jan
AI-created movie receives high IMDB rating50% by Jan
AI completes the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet50% by Jan
Autonomous rideshares surpass human-driven rideshares in the US45% by Jan
AI bubble pop triggers economic depression43% by Jan
Robot completes surgery with no human intervention43% by Jan
AI-created movie receives high IMDB rating36% by Jan
International treaty limits autonomous AI weapons33% by Jan
FDA approves an AI doctor for primary care31% by Jan
Over 50% of software development projects are primarily created by AI70% by Jan
Neuralink enables a blind person to see again67% by Jan
Software engineer salaries decline due to AI by 202963% by Jan
A reliable general household robot is developed57% by Jan
A $10B AI alignment megaproject starts work37% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203039% by Mar
AI surpasses humans in scientific research31% by Sep
AI-generated paper accepted into Nature57% by Dec
AI causes mass layoffs of knowledge workers70% by Jan
Over 50% of households in a developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making55% by Jan
AI-written books reach NYT fiction bestseller list45% by Jan
Humanoid robots become commonplace in the US41% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203146% by Mar
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem60% by Dec
Most digital entertainment is AI-generated30% by Jan
AI causes a financial crash within a decade56% by Oct
AI generates a full high-quality movie to a prompt by 203269% by Dec
AI Companion app reaches 500 million users68% by Jan
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem independently60% by Jan
AI program solves the Riemann Hypothesis44% by Jan
War occurs over AI43% by Jan
AI develops a foundational mathematical theory32% by Jan
US or UK nationalizes a frontier AI lab65% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203564% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 203666% by Mar
Humanoid robots win against human soccer champions before 203768% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203768% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 203870% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 203970% by Mar
An AI becomes CEO of a Fortune 500 company63% by Dec
Superintelligence emerges by 204068% by Jan
AI contributes to discovering the first room temperature and pressure superconductor63% by Jan
AI generates high-quality video games from prompts55% by Jan
A country legalizes marriage to an AI/Robot36% by Jan
Most digital entertainment is AI-generated67% by Jan
AI-controlled drone dogfights debut in Ukraine51% by Dec
A country grants legal rights to nonhuman entities by 204054% by Dec
Most digital entertainment is AI-generated64% by Jan
AI replaces doctors52% by Jan
Silicon-based intelligence is granted rights61% by Jan
AI resolves the P vs NP problem54% by Dec
AI gets elected as a politician32% by Dec
Artificial sentience is created by 205056% by Jan
Countries recognize AI or robots as non-human persons with legal rights58% by Jan
Over 97% of jobs become fully automated56% by Jan
Sentient AI system exists before 204058% by Dec
Sentient AI system exists before 203043% by Dec
2026
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2027
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2028
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2029
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2030
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2031
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2032
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2033
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2034
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2035
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2036
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2037
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2038
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2039
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2040
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2041
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2042
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2043
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2044
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2045
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2046
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2047
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2048
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2049
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2050
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2051
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2052
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2053
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2054
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2055
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2056
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2057
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2058
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2059
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2060
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2061
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2062
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2063
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2064
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2065
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2066
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2067
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2068
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2069
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2070
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2071
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2072
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2073
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2074
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2075
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2076
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2077
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2078
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2079
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2080
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2081
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2082
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2083
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2084
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2085
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2086
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2087
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2088
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2089
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2090
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2091
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2092
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2093
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2094
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2095
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2096
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2097
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2098
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2099
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Showing 109 curated forecasts