Timeline of AI forecasts
What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response, according to the median prediction of forecasters on Metaculus and Manifold.
Forecasters were asked to predict when statements about the future would come true (or, for some statements, the probability that they would occur by a given date). Learn more about the track record of Metaculus and Manifold.
These forecasts have limited precision – the specific months or years should not be interpreted as definitive. We hope to give you a rough sense of how AI might play out.
Last updated: April 23, 2025
Today
FDA authorizes 1,000 AI/ML medical devices50% by Jun
OpenAI announces GPT-550% by Aug
AI achieves 90% on SWE-Bench Verified50% by Sep
AI scores 85% on the ARC benchmark50% by Nov
China has the top open LLM47% by Dec
Apple introduces human-like on-device TTS46% by Dec
OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench41% by Dec
OpenAI acquires Windsurf39% by Dec
DeepSeek becomes a closed AI lab37% by Dec
Agents like OpenAI's Operator are practically useful33% by Dec
Flagship LLMs integrate ads into responses33% by Dec
OpenAI launches a more expensive model than o1-pro60% by Jan
The US passes a federal AI regulation bill53% by Jan
OpenAI identifies high AI persuasion risk52% by Jan
OpenAI's for-profit arm separates from non-profit arm44% by Jan
US bans distribution of deepfakes of public persons44% by Jan
OpenAI stops sharing new models with AISI before release39% by Jan
The US launches a Manhattan-like project for AGI34% by Jan
The US regulates AI development32% by Jan
Chinese AI surpasses o3's Frontier Math score70% by Jan
Deepfake video sparks major political controversy involving a head of state58% by Jan
US Federal Government bans sharing deepfake nudes35% by Jan
AI achieves a ≥98th percentile score on Mensa IQ test50% by Jan
Fewer US programming jobs than a year ago51% by Mar
5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs in two years46% by Apr
Prominent US politicians advocate banning open-weight AI models70% by Apr
AI concern goes mainstream in the US50% by Apr
Open-source AI wins a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad50% by May
AI is regularly used to diagnose complex diseases32% by Jul
Machines reach kindergartner-level LEGO building skills50% by Oct
AI accurately does taxes by end of 202664% by Dec
AI writes an article accepted by a prestigious Philosophy journal49% by Dec
AI bindingly arbitrates a dispute in the US39% by Dec
The ARC-AGI grand prize is claimed37% by Dec
A humanoid robot breaks the human marathon record32% by Dec
Protests against AI art in the US reach 1,000 participants44% by Jan
AI-generated song tops Billboard Hot 10041% by Jan
Models perform AI researcher/engineer duties31% by Jan
OpenAI pays scientific publishers for content32% by Jan
More than half of the US population works with AI daily42% by Jan
AI solves over 80% of competition-level coding problems on the first try50% by Apr
AI is recursively self-improving45% by Aug
AI matches average accountant in tax preparation64% by Jan
More people interact with AI via voice than text33% by Jan
AI generates a low-quality movie in response to a prompt66% by Jan
A humanoid robot causes a human death31% by Jan
China manufactures domestic EUV lithography equipment (used in chip production)50% by Jan
500K humanoid robots are manufactured43% by Mar
AI publishes in a top 50 scientific journal50% by Sep
AI propaganda significantly influences the 2028 presidential election70% by Nov
AI ranks as a top concern in Gallup's poll, comparable to abortion56% by Jan
False conviction in the US due to an AI-generated video36% by Jan
AI can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers50% by Jan
AI ranks among top 5 voter issues for the 2028 election68% by Jan
AI achieves a perfect score on the Putnam Math Competition50% by Mar
Tesla Bots become available to US consumers50% by Apr
An AI-generated book makes the NYT Best Seller list50% by Apr
AI virally self-replicates on the open internet70% by Jan
AI policy becomes a partisan issue in the US70% by Jan
AI pilots an aircraft with human passengers autonomously66% by Jan
Sam Altman is CEO of OpenAI during AGI release63% by Jan
AI system makes $50m by investing $1m63% by Jan
An international AI regulatory agency is established50% by Jan
100k person anti-AI protest occurs48% by Jan
International aggression over AI occurs45% by Jan
FDA approves an AI doctor for primary care34% by Jan
Backpropagation takes a back seat34% by Jan
Neuralink achieves telepathy with its technology65% by Jan
David Chalmers believes in conscious AI57% by Jan
Software engineer salaries decline due to AI by 202947% by Jan
A humanoid robot causes a human death38% by Jan
The majority of entertainment is AI-generated32% by Jan
US government maintains AI safety incident list55% by Jan
An AI-generated film ranks #1 on a popular streaming service50% by Jan
Tech giant offers AI-conducted university course50% by Apr
Compute threshold for AI models in California is raised before 203055% by Jun
AI creates a critically acclaimed feature film50% by Dec
AI-generated paper accepted into Nature58% by Dec
AI causes mass layoffs of knowledge workers70% by Jan
AI training cluster reaches $1 trillion value65% by Jan
AI takes over most mental health therapy jobs35% by Jan
A top US AI lab is nationalized30% by Jan
AI extends the English language53% by Mar
A supermarket operates fully with AI50% by Apr
The first fully autonomous surgery on a human is performed50% by Apr
Most Americans know someone who has dated an AI50% by Jul
AI enables communication with animals66% by May
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem50% by Aug
AI solves the next Millennium Prize Problem40% by Dec
OpenAI reaches its profit cap for initial investors50% by Jan
AI is given rights in the US39% by Jan
US or UK nationalizes a frontier AI lab45% by Jan
Military operation aims to slow AI development32% by Jan
AI catastrophe occurs (if it happens this century)50% by May
World GDP grows by >30% annually due to AI50% by Jul
AI is mentioned in a major country's constitution50% by May
An AI becomes CEO of a Fortune 500 company60% by Dec
A country legalizes marriage to an AI/Robot45% by Jan
Non-invasive brain-computer interfaces become common45% by Jan
A country bans human-driven cars for AI self-driving in a city center60% by Jan
AI independently prescribes the majority of medication in the US50% by Oct
AI writes 25% of NYT Best Selling Fiction40% by Feb
AI resolves the P vs NP problem39% by Dec
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2050
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Showing 103 curated forecasts