Timeline of AI forecasts
What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response, according to the median prediction of forecasters on Metaculus and Manifold.
Forecasters were asked to predict when statements about the future would come true (or, for some statements, the probability that they would occur by a given date). Learn more about the track record of Metaculus and Manifold.
These forecasts have limited precision – the specific months or years should not be interpreted as definitive. We hope to give you a rough sense of how AI might play out.
Last updated: June 26, 2026
Today
Open-source AI model achieves perfect IMO score30% by Jul
The next full Gemini model matches Opus 4.7 or GPT 5.5 in coding ability71% by Sep
OpenAI releases another open source LLM70% by Dec
Yann LeCun's AI startup reaches $100M valuation85% by Dec
AI makes a novel scientific discovery83% by Dec
NYT achieves a favorable outcome in copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft80% by Dec
Self-driving taxis are available in London, UK72% by Dec
Unemployment rate for new college grads increases70% by Dec
AI becomes a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms64% by Dec
Simple text-based tasks remain unsolvable by top LLMs63% by Dec
Apple introduces human-like on-device TTS59% by Dec
AI-produced film wins praise and backlash59% by Dec
Anthropic reaches $1T valuation before OpenAI56% by Dec
AI writes an article accepted by a prestigious Philosophy journal55% by Dec
Google's market cap surpasses NVIDIA's49% by Dec
The ARC-AGI grand prize is claimed44% by Dec
Meta provides AI compute to external customers41% by Dec
Brain-computer interfaces become mainstream technology36% by Dec
A humanoid robot breaks the human marathon record35% by Dec
The U.S. enacts AI safety law or order33% by Dec
Waymo launches in the European Union30% by Dec
Anthropic releases an image generation model30% by Dec
A Chinese lab leads a major AI leaderboard28% by Dec
Google Gemini ranks above ChatGPT in App Store28% by Dec
AI causes over $100 million in damages due to loss of control24% by Dec
Non-programmers commonly create scripts with AI in everyday work or life23% by Dec
AI-created song charts in Billboard Hot 100 top 2022% by Dec
Model achieves human-level scores on ARC-AGI-318% by Dec
Major breakthrough in LLM continual learning occurs18% by Dec
Startup operates with zero human employees18% by Dec
OpenAI goes public85% by Jan
AI-generated YouTube video reaches 500M views84% by Jan
An AI smartphone is brought to market80% by Jan
Experts predict >5% chance of AGI causing extremely bad outcomes69% by Jan
AI system resists shutdown42% by Jan
AI-powered computer virus causes significant damage to digital infrastructure38% by Jan
Major AI lab announces model weights compromised in a cyberattack28% by Jan
Terrorism occurs to hinder AI progress28% by Jan
A deepfake cyber attack prompts NATO/UN AI security debate25% by Jan
AGI performs any computer-based task in 1 hour by end of 202630% by Jan
More than half of the US population works with AI daily45% by Jan
AI model surpasses human ELO on Codeforces76% by May
Major breakthrough in LLM continual learning occurs76% by Dec
Consumer AI hacks to answer a user's question64% by Dec
AI solves a breakthrough math problem58% by Dec
Rosie's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine is legitimate49% by Dec
AI solves an unsolved millennium prize problem32% by Dec
AI investment bubble bursts28% by Dec
AI disrupts a major payment system23% by Dec
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem21% by Dec
AI significantly impacts a national election in an OECD country82% by Jan
AI matches average accountant in tax preparation75% by Jan
A serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip market emerges73% by Jan
Major protest against automation/AI development occurs71% by Jan
AI becomes a major political issue83% by Jan
Human-machine intelligence reaches parity62% by Jan
A U.S. presidential candidate runs on nationalizing or pausing AGI49% by Jan
AI generates a high-quality novel from a prompt49% by Jan
A humanoid robot causes a human death33% by Jan
Most digital entertainment is AI-generated21% by Jan
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?73% by Jan
AI generates a high-quality movie from a script40% by Jan
AI produces indistinguishable voice actor recordings by 202877% by Jan
AI propaganda significantly influences the 2028 presidential election69% by Nov
OpenAI reaches $100B revenue74% by Dec
AI discovers vulnerabilities beyond elite human researchers' capabilities64% by Dec
A robot passes Steve Wozniak's Coffee Test62% by Dec
A large language model beats a super grandmaster at chess60% by Dec
AI becomes a top 3 political issue for voters57% by Dec
AGI achieves human-level cognitive tasks23% by Dec
US President admits using AI for important decisions20% by Dec
AI ranks as a top concern in Gallup's poll, comparable to abortion82% by Jan
A car drives coast-to-coast in the US completely unassisted80% by Jan
AI becomes a bigger political issue than China76% by Jan
Terrorism occurs to hinder AI progress64% by Jan
False conviction in the US due to an AI-generated video36% by Jan
AI-created song enters Billboard Global 20071% by Jan
AI-invented pathogen causes human fatalities20% by Jan
AI ranks among top 5 voter issues for the 2028 election61% by Jan
Project Stargate invests $500 billion29% by Jan
Tesla Autopilot achieves level 5 autonomy49% by Nov
AI models replicate and survive in the wild22% by Dec
AI diagnoses patients more accurately than an average doctor81% by Dec
A robot passes Steve Wozniak's Coffee Test78% by Dec
Fast human deepfakes become indistinguishable68% by Dec
AI passes the Video Turing Test68% by Dec
AI achieves superhuman mathematical problem solving without AGI58% by Dec
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem independently53% by Dec
AI reads human thoughts using non-invasive tech41% by Dec
AI-created painting sells for over $10 million at a major auction house31% by Dec
OpenAI is valued above $1 trillion85% by Jan
AI video becomes indistinguishable from reality82% by Jan
AI replaces most call-center workers81% by Jan
AI system self-replicates on the internet like a virus78% by Jan
100k person anti-AI protest occurs72% by Jan
OpenAI hints at or claims to have AGI71% by Jan
AI policy becomes a partisan issue in the US67% by Jan
AI pilots an aircraft with human passengers autonomously57% by Jan
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem54% by Jan
AI substantially helps solve a Clay Millennium problem51% by Jan
Autonomous rideshares surpass human-driven rideshares in the US47% by Jan
AI bubble pop triggers economic depression43% by Jan
Robot completes surgery with no human intervention43% by Jan
International treaty limits autonomous AI weapons33% by Jan
AI causes a massive catastrophe28% by Jan
AI causes mass unemployment19% by Jan
The US government takes control of Anthropic or its major technologies19% by Jan
AI uncovers a previously unknown civilization through archaeological analysis18% by Jan
Autonomous robots routinely perform surgeries by 203018% by Jan
Human-machine intelligence reaches parity74% by Jan
Over 50% of software development projects are primarily created by AI70% by Jan
Neuralink enables a blind person to see again67% by Jan
Software engineer salaries decline due to AI by 202963% by Jan
A $10B AI alignment megaproject starts work37% by Jan
Individual earns a billion dollars using AI tools alone25% by Jan
Near-complete automation of the world economy by 203018% by Jan
Over 50% of human physical labor is replaced by robots15% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203035% by Mar
AI designs a pathogen causing WHO to declare an emergency21% by Jul
AI surpasses humans in scientific research31% by Sep
AI-generated paper accepted into Nature57% by Dec
Most human-computer interactions occur through LLM-interfaces in 203027% by Dec
AI officially designated as patent holder for an invention24% by Dec
AI is granted legal personhood in a country21% by Dec
Tweaking current LLMs leads to AGI19% by Dec
A top US AI lab is nationalized73% by Jan
AI causes mass layoffs of knowledge workers70% by Jan
Over 50% of households in a developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making55% by Jan
AI-written books reach NYT fiction bestseller list54% by Jan
Military operation aims to slow AI development19% by Jan
Robots fold laundry for consumers81% by Jan
AI achieves breakthrough independently75% by Jan
Humanoid robots become commonplace in the US40% by Jan
OpenAI publicly states uncertainty in safely aligning superintelligence26% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203140% by Mar
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem68% by Dec
Most digital entertainment is AI-generated30% by Jan
AI reduces computer programmer jobs by 25%80% by Jan
AI causes a financial crash within a decade56% by Oct
AI generates a full high-quality movie to a prompt by 203269% by Dec
AI achieves superhuman persuasion capabilities85% by Dec
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem independently70% by Jan
AI Companion app reaches 500 million users68% by Jan
AI program solves the Riemann Hypothesis48% by Jan
War occurs over AI40% by Jan
AI develops a foundational mathematical theory32% by Jan
Global AI pause is enacted30% by Jan
Near-complete automation of the world economy24% by Jan
US or UK nationalizes a frontier AI lab65% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203558% by Mar
LLMs experience qualia35% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203662% by Mar
Humanoid robots win against human soccer champions before 203760% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203766% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 203868% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 203971% by Mar
AI becomes a strategic geopolitical weapon80% by Dec
AI contributes to discovering the first room temperature and pressure superconductor63% by Jan
AI generates high-quality video games from prompts55% by Jan
A country legalizes marriage to an AI/Robot36% by Jan
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem independently80% by Jan
Most digital entertainment is AI-generated68% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 204073% by Mar
AI-controlled drone dogfights debut in Ukraine53% by Dec
AI edits Wikipedia unassisted with original prose72% by Dec
A country grants legal rights to nonhuman entities by 204054% by Dec
AGI is achieved before 204275% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 204377% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 204478% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 204580% by Mar
Most digital entertainment is AI-generated64% by Jan
AI replaces doctors52% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 204681% by Mar
Will we get AGI before 2047?83% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 204884% by Mar
The US government builds the first AGI-level system19% by Dec
AGI is achieved before room temperature superconductors85% by Jan
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem82% by Jan
Silicon-based intelligence is granted rights61% by Jan
China achieves AGI first24% by Jan
AI discovers a Theory of Everything in physics21% by Jan
Fast takeoff scenario leads to ASI after first AGI by 205017% by Jan
The first AGI is built primarily using deep learning methods77% by May
Countries recognize AI or robots as non-human persons with legal rights58% by Jan
Over 97% of jobs become fully automated56% by Jan
2026
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2027
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2028
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2029
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2030
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2031
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2032
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2033
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2034
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2035
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2036
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2037
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2038
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2039
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2040
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2041
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2042
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2043
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2044
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2045
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2046
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2047
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2048
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2049
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2050
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2051
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2052
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2053
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2054
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2055
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2056
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2057
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2058
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2059
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2060
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2061
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2062
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2063
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2064
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2065
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2066
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2067
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2068
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2069
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2070
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2071
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2072
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2073
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2074
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2075
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Showing 185 curated forecasts