Timeline of AI forecasts
What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response, according to the median prediction of forecasters on Metaculus and Manifold.
Forecasters were asked to predict when statements about the future would come true (or, for some statements, the probability that they would occur by a given date). Learn more about the track record of Metaculus and Manifold.
These forecasts have limited precision – the specific months or years should not be interpreted as definitive. We hope to give you a rough sense of how AI might play out.
Last updated: April 23, 2025
Today
Fewer US programming jobs than a year ago40% by Mar
The ARC-AGI grand prize is claimed63% by Dec
AI achieves >80% on FrontierMath benchmark45% by Jan
More than half of the US population works with AI daily45% by Jan
AI achieves >85% on FrontierMath benchmark67% by Jan
Assassination attempt on a major AI lab CEO32% by Dec
AI training cluster reaches $1 trillion value50% by Jan
AI enables communication with animals55% by May
US or UK nationalizes a frontier AI lab47% by Jan
Military operation aims to slow AI development32% by Jan
2026
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2027
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2028
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2029
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2030
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2031
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2032
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2033
Feb
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2034
Feb
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2035
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2036
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Showing 10 curated forecasts