Timeline of AI forecasts
What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response, according to the median prediction of forecasters on Metaculus and Manifold.
Forecasters were asked to predict when statements about the future would come true (or, for some statements, the probability that they would occur by a given date). Learn more about the track record of Metaculus and Manifold.
These forecasts have limited precision – the specific months or years should not be interpreted as definitive. We hope to give you a rough sense of how AI might play out.
Last updated: June 26, 2026
Today
Coca-Cola's Christmas ad is AI-generated42% by Dec
OpenAI releases another open source LLM44% by Dec
NYT achieves a favorable outcome in copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft80% by Dec
Unemployment rate for new college grads increases69% by Dec
Yann LeCun's AI startup reaches $100M valuation69% by Dec
AI writes an article accepted by a prestigious Philosophy journal67% by Dec
Simple text-based tasks remain unsolvable by top LLMs63% by Dec
AI-produced film wins praise and backlash62% by Dec
Self-driving taxis are available in London, UK61% by Dec
Apple introduces human-like on-device TTS59% by Dec
Meta provides AI compute to external customers54% by Dec
The ARC-AGI grand prize is claimed50% by Dec
AI becomes a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms50% by Dec
Anthropic reaches $1T valuation before OpenAI50% by Dec
Brain-computer interfaces become mainstream technology33% by Dec
The U.S. enacts AI safety law or order27% by Dec
AI causes over $100 million in damages due to loss of control25% by Dec
A Chinese lab leads a major AI leaderboard25% by Dec
Non-programmers commonly create scripts with AI in everyday work or life23% by Dec
A humanoid robot breaks the human marathon record22% by Dec
Google's market cap surpasses NVIDIA's18% by Dec
Anthropic releases an image generation model18% by Dec
Major breakthrough in LLM continual learning occurs16% by Dec
An AI smartphone is brought to market80% by Jan
AI-generated YouTube video reaches 500M views75% by Jan
AI system resists shutdown42% by Jan
AI-powered computer virus causes significant damage to digital infrastructure39% by Jan
Terrorism occurs to hinder AI progress28% by Jan
Major AI lab announces model weights compromised in a cyberattack25% by Jan
A deepfake cyber attack prompts NATO/UN AI security debate25% by Jan
AGI performs any computer-based task in 1 hour by end of 202630% by Jan
More than half of the US population works with AI daily41% by Jan
A frontier model exfiltrates its weights and runs externally23% by Mar
AI model surpasses human ELO on Codeforces77% by May
Major breakthrough in LLM continual learning occurs76% by Dec
AI agents operate autonomously without shutdown72% by Dec
Consumer AI hacks to answer a user's question71% by Dec
Rosie's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine is legitimate33% by Dec
AI investment bubble bursts29% by Dec
AI disrupts a major payment system23% by Dec
AI significantly impacts a national election in an OECD country82% by Jan
AI matches average accountant in tax preparation76% by Jan
A serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip market emerges73% by Jan
Major protest against automation/AI development occurs71% by Jan
AI becomes a major political issue83% by Jan
AI generates a high-quality novel from a prompt51% by Jan
A humanoid robot causes a human death33% by Jan
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?69% by Jan
AI generates a high-quality movie from a script40% by Jan
AI produces indistinguishable voice actor recordings by 202877% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 202824% by Mar
AI propaganda significantly influences the 2028 presidential election71% by Nov
A robot passes Steve Wozniak's Coffee Test81% by Dec
OpenAI reaches $100B revenue80% by Dec
AI becomes a top 3 political issue for voters65% by Dec
A large language model beats a super grandmaster at chess60% by Dec
AI discovers vulnerabilities beyond elite human researchers' capabilities58% by Dec
AGI achieves human-level cognitive tasks23% by Dec
US President admits using AI for important decisions22% by Dec
A car drives coast-to-coast in the US completely unassisted82% by Jan
AI ranks as a top concern in Gallup's poll, comparable to abortion80% by Jan
AI becomes a bigger political issue than China76% by Jan
Terrorism occurs to hinder AI progress64% by Jan
False conviction in the US due to an AI-generated video36% by Jan
AI-created song enters Billboard Global 20071% by Jan
AI-invented pathogen causes human fatalities20% by Jan
AI ranks among top 5 voter issues for the 2028 election61% by Jan
Project Stargate invests $500 billion29% by Jan
Tesla Autopilot achieves level 5 autonomy42% by Nov
AI models replicate and survive in the wild67% by Dec
A robot passes Steve Wozniak's Coffee Test83% by Dec
AI diagnoses patients more accurately than an average doctor81% by Dec
AI passes the Video Turing Test71% by Dec
Fast human deepfakes become indistinguishable68% by Dec
AI replaces most call-center workers83% by Jan
AI video becomes indistinguishable from reality82% by Jan
AI system self-replicates on the internet like a virus82% by Jan
OpenAI is valued above $1 trillion80% by Jan
100k person anti-AI protest occurs74% by Jan
AI policy becomes a partisan issue in the US67% by Jan
Autonomous rideshares surpass human-driven rideshares in the US52% by Jan
Robot completes surgery with no human intervention45% by Jan
AI bubble pop triggers economic depression43% by Jan
International treaty limits autonomous AI weapons33% by Jan
AI causes a massive catastrophe27% by Jan
The US government takes control of Anthropic or its major technologies19% by Jan
Autonomous robots routinely perform surgeries by 203018% by Jan
Over 50% of software development projects are primarily created by AI70% by Jan
Neuralink enables a blind person to see again67% by Jan
Software engineer salaries decline due to AI by 202961% by Jan
A $10B AI alignment megaproject starts work37% by Jan
Individual earns a billion dollars using AI tools alone25% by Jan
Near-complete automation of the world economy by 203017% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203050% by Mar
AI designs a pathogen causing WHO to declare an emergency21% by Jul
AI surpasses humans in scientific research31% by Sep
AI-generated paper accepted into Nature57% by Dec
Most human-computer interactions occur through LLM-interfaces in 203026% by Dec
Tweaking current LLMs leads to AGI19% by Dec
A top US AI lab is nationalized71% by Jan
AI causes mass layoffs of knowledge workers70% by Jan
AI-written books reach NYT fiction bestseller list59% by Jan
Over 50% of households in a developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making55% by Jan
Military operation aims to slow AI development19% by Jan
Robots fold laundry for consumers81% by Jan
AI achieves breakthrough independently76% by Jan
Humanoid robots become commonplace in the US40% by Jan
OpenAI publicly states uncertainty in safely aligning superintelligence26% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203155% by Mar
Rogue AI emerges before 203121% by Mar
Most digital entertainment is AI-generated30% by Jan
AI reduces computer programmer jobs by 25%80% by Jan
AI causes a financial crash within a decade56% by Oct
AI generates a full high-quality movie to a prompt by 203277% by Dec
US GDP per capita grows by 15% in a year29% by Dec
AI achieves superhuman persuasion capabilities85% by Dec
AI Companion app reaches 500 million users68% by Jan
AI develops a foundational mathematical theory72% by Jan
Global AI pause is enacted40% by Jan
War occurs over AI40% by Jan
Near-complete automation of the world economy24% by Jan
US or UK nationalizes a frontier AI lab65% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203563% by Mar
LLMs experience qualia42% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203668% by Mar
Humanoid robots win against human soccer champions before 203760% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203769% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 203870% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 203971% by Mar
AI becomes a strategic geopolitical weapon79% by Dec
AI contributes to discovering the first room temperature and pressure superconductor75% by Jan
AI generates high-quality video games from prompts60% by Jan
A country legalizes marriage to an AI/Robot36% by Jan
Most digital entertainment is AI-generated64% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 204072% by Mar
AI-controlled drone dogfights debut in Ukraine53% by Dec
AI edits Wikipedia unassisted with original prose72% by Dec
A country grants legal rights to nonhuman entities by 204054% by Dec
AGI is achieved before 204276% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 204378% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 204480% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 204583% by Mar
Most digital entertainment is AI-generated64% by Jan
AI replaces doctors52% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 204684% by Mar
Will we get AGI before 2047?85% by Mar
The US government builds the first AGI-level system19% by Dec
AGI is achieved before room temperature superconductors85% by Jan
Silicon-based intelligence is granted rights61% by Jan
China achieves AGI first23% by Jan
AI discovers a Theory of Everything in physics21% by Jan
Fast takeoff scenario leads to ASI after first AGI by 205017% by Jan
The first AGI is built primarily using deep learning methods78% by May
Countries recognize AI or robots as non-human persons with legal rights58% by Jan
Over 97% of jobs become fully automated63% by Jan
2026
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2027
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2028
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2029
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2031
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2032
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2033
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2034
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2035
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2036
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2037
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2038
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2039
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2040
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2041
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2042
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2043
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2044
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2045
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2046
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2047
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2048
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2049
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2050
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2051
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2052
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2053
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2054
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2055
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2056
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2057
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2058
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2059
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2060
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2061
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2062
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2063
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2064
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2065
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2066
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2067
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2068
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2069
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2070
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2071
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2072
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2073
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2074
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2075
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Showing 155 curated forecasts