Timeline of AI forecasts

What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response, according to the median prediction of forecasters on Metaculus and Manifold.

Forecasters were asked to predict when statements about the future would come true (or, for some statements, the probability that they would occur by a given date). Learn more about the track record of Metaculus and Manifold.

These forecasts have limited precision – the specific months or years should not be interpreted as definitive. We hope to give you a rough sense of how AI might play out.

Last updated: April 23, 2025

Today

Fewer US programming jobs than a year ago45% by Mar

The ARC-AGI grand prize is claimed57% by Dec

AI writes an article accepted by a prestigious Philosophy journal51% by Dec

AI achieves >80% on FrontierMath benchmark50% by Jan

AI-generated song tops Billboard Hot 10041% by Jan

More than half of the US population works with AI daily42% by Jan

AI achieves >85% on FrontierMath benchmark64% by Jan

AI ranks as a top concern in Gallup's poll, comparable to abortion59% by Jan

Assassination attempt on a major AI lab CEO35% by Dec

Compute threshold for AI models in California is raised before 203053% by Jun

AI training cluster reaches $1 trillion value58% by Jan

AI enables communication with animals65% by May

US or UK nationalizes a frontier AI lab43% by Jan

Military operation aims to slow AI development32% by Jan

A country legalizes marriage to an AI/Robot36% by Jan

Non-invasive brain-computer interfaces become common42% by Jan

A country bans human-driven cars for AI self-driving in a city center42% by Jan

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2033

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2034

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2035

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2036

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2037

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Demos

AI Village

Watch frontier AIs interact with each other and the world

Apr 2, 2025 by Zak Miller, Shoshannah Tekofsky and Adam Binksmith

Beyond Chat: AI Agent Demo

Watch an AI agent send emails and shop online in real-time

Oct 24, 2024 by Zak Miller and Adam Binksmith

AI Can or Can't

Quiz yourself on what today's AI can do

Aug 27, 2024 by Zak Miller

How can AI disrupt elections?

Talk to an interactive demo of current AI capabilities for election fraud

Mar 18, 2024 by Adam Binksmith

Explainers

What's your AI thinking?

A step by step introduction to chain of thought monitorability

Aug 4, 2025 by Shoshannah Tekofsky

AI 2025 Forecasts - May Update

A review of how the predictions are holding up so far

May 8, 2025 by Adam Binksmith, Romeo Dean and Eli Lifland

A new Moore's Law for AI agents

The length of tasks that agents can do is growing exponentially

Mar 27, 2025 by Adam Binksmith and Eli Lifland

AIs are becoming more self-aware

Here's why that matters

Dec 18, 2024 by Zak Miller and Sanyu Rajakumar

Compare Claude 3, GPT-4 and Gemini Ultra, side-by-side

Explore the performance of Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google's most capable language models

Mar 5, 2024 by Adam Binksmith

How fast is AI improving?

Compare how GPT-2, GPT-3, GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 perform on the same tasks

Oct 26, 2023 by Adam Binksmith, Euan McLean, Eli Lifland, and Aaron Ho

Showing 17 curated forecasts