Timeline of AI forecasts

What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response, according to the median prediction of forecasters on Metaculus and Manifold.

Forecasters were asked to predict when statements about the future would come true (or, for some statements, the probability that they would occur by a given date). Learn more about the track record of Metaculus and Manifold.

These forecasts have limited precision – the specific months or years should not be interpreted as definitive. We hope to give you a rough sense of how AI might play out.

Today

AI generates complete excel-based financial valuation models32% by Jan

Transformer-based AI systems accelerate deep learning progress32% by Jan

Laws require AI emulating humans to disclose their identity33% by Jan

OpenAI announces GPT-550% by Feb

5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs in two years53% by Apr

Next US President signs an AI-related Executive Order in first 100 days58% by May

FDA authorizes 1,000 AI/ML medical devices50% by Jun

Apple introduces human-like on-device TTS46% by Dec

Large-scale protests occur over Deep Learning-generated content38% by Dec

xAI joins voluntary commitment to share new models with AISI65% by Jan

LLM released by 2025 is dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic59% by Jan

US bans distribution of deepfakes of public persons52% by Jan

AI financially impacts some US lawyers50% by Jan

AI discovers a critical cybersecurity vulnerability43% by Jan

Meta joins voluntary AI model-sharing commitment38% by Jan

A drug designed with AlphaFold-like AI passes Phase I trial33% by Jan

Deceptive alignment demonstrated by 202667% by Jan

US Federal Government bans sharing deepfake nudes64% by Jan

ARC-AGI grand prize is claimed62% by Jan

Deepfake video sparks major political controversy involving a head of state57% by Jan

AI wins a Gold Medal in the International Olympiad in Informatics50% by Jan

AI concern goes mainstream in the US50% by Feb

Prominent US politicians advocate banning open-weight AI models56% by Apr

OpenAI reaches a $300B valuation65% by Jul

AI is regularly used to diagnose complex diseases32% by Jul

Open-source AI wins a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad50% by Jul

Machines reach kindergartner-level LEGO building skills50% by Sep

AI accurately does taxes by end of 202663% by Dec

AI writes an article accepted by a prestigious Philosophy journal47% by Dec

AI bindingly arbitrates a dispute in the US46% by Dec

Protests against AI art in the US reach 1,000 participants62% by Jan

Models perform AI researcher/engineer duties36% by Jan

OpenAI pays scientific publishers for content69% by Jan

More than half of the US population works with AI daily47% by Jan

AI solves over 80% of competition-level coding problems on the first try50% by May

China manufactures domestic EUV lithography equipment (used in chip production)50% by Nov

AI matches average accountant in tax preparation64% by Jan

More people interact with AI via voice than text42% by Jan

AI achieves >85% on FrontierMath benchmark68% by Jan

AI generates a low-quality movie in response to a prompt67% by Jan

A humanoid robot causes a human death39% by Jan

500K humanoid robots are manufactured60% by Mar

An AI-generated film ranks #1 on a popular streaming service50% by Sep

AI propaganda significantly influences the 2028 presidential election70% by Nov

AI ranks as a top concern in Gallup's poll, comparable to abortion51% by Jan

AI beats top Magic the Gathering human player50% by Jan

False conviction in the US due to an AI-generated video36% by Jan

AI ranks among top 5 voter issues for the 2028 election46% by Jan

AI achieves a perfect score on the Putnam Math Competition50% by Jun

AI publishes in a top 50 scientific journal50% by Jul

Tesla Bots become available to US consumers50% by Aug

An AI-generated book makes the NYT Best Seller list50% by Oct

AI creates a critically acclaimed feature film50% by Dec

FDA approves an AI-developed cure for a major illness60% by Dec

Assassination attempt on a major AI lab CEO30% by Dec

AI pilots an aircraft with human passengers autonomously67% by Jan

An international AI regulatory agency is established60% by Jan

100k person anti-AI protest occurs38% by Jan

Backpropagation takes a back seat35% by Jan

FDA approves an AI doctor for primary care30% by Jan

Neuralink achieves telepathy with its technology65% by Jan

David Chalmers believes in conscious AI50% by Jan

Software engineer salaries decline due to AI by 202945% by Jan

A humanoid robot causes a human death38% by Jan

The majority of entertainment is AI-generated32% by Jan

Compute threshold for AI models in California is raised before 203064% by Jun

AI-generated paper accepted into Nature58% by Dec

AI causes mass layoffs of knowledge workers68% by Jan

AI training cluster reaches $1 trillion value68% by Jan

A top US AI lab is nationalized38% by Jan

AI takes over most mental health therapy jobs32% by Jan

AI extends the English language40% by Mar

The first fully autonomous surgery on a human is performed50% by Dec

Most Americans know someone who has dated an AI50% by Nov

A supermarket operates fully with AI50% by Jan

AI solves the next Millennium Prize Problem42% by Dec

Slaughterbots kill 50 people outside military conflict68% by Jan

OpenAI reaches its profit cap for initial investors50% by Jan

AI is given rights in the US38% by Jan

US or UK nationalizes a frontier AI lab44% by Jan

Military operation aims to slow AI development32% by Jan

AI catastrophe occurs (if it happens this century)50% by Nov

AI is mentioned in a major country's constitution50% by Aug

An AI becomes CEO of a Fortune 500 company53% by Dec

A country legalizes marriage to an AI/Robot45% by Jan

Non-invasive brain-computer interfaces become common48% by Jan

A country bans human-driven cars for AI self-driving in a city center60% by Jan

World GDP grows by >30% annually due to AI50% by Dec

AI independently prescribes the majority of medication in the US50% by Dec

AI writes 25% of NYT Best Selling Fiction44% by Feb

A religion with AI as a deity or priest attracts over 1 million followers67% by Jan

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AIs are becoming more self-aware. Here's why that matters

What will the world look like with more self-aware AIs? Explore the potential benefits and risks

Dec 18, 2024 by Zak Miller and Sanyu Rajakumar

Beyond Chat: AI Agent Demo

Watch an AI agent send emails and shop online in real-time

Oct 24, 2024 by Zak Miller and Adam Binksmith

AI Can or Can't

Quiz yourself on what today's AI can do

Aug 27, 2024 by Zak Miller

How can AI disrupt elections?

Talk to an interactive demo of current AI capabilities for election fraud

Mar 18, 2024 by Adam Binksmith

Compare Claude 3, GPT-4 and Gemini Ultra, side-by-side

Explore the performance of Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google's most capable language models

Mar 5, 2024 by Adam Binksmith

How fast is AI improving?

Compare how GPT-2, GPT-3, GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 perform on the same tasks

Oct 26, 2023 by Adam Binksmith, Euan McLean (FAR AI), Eli Lifland, and Aaron Ho

Showing 91 curated forecasts

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