Timeline of AI forecasts
What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response, according to the median prediction of forecasters on Metaculus and Manifold.
Forecasters were asked to predict when statements about the future would come true (or, for some statements, the probability that they would occur by a given date). Learn more about the track record of Metaculus and Manifold.
These forecasts have limited precision – the specific months or years should not be interpreted as definitive. We hope to give you a rough sense of how AI might play out.
Today
California's AI regulation bill SB 1047 becomes law34% by Sep
OpenAI announces GPT-550% by Oct
A Chinese entity develops an AI model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU50% by Nov
AI becomes a major topic in the 2024 US presidential debates38% by Nov
OpenAI funds, starts, or buys an AI chip company69% by Dec
Llama-3 is open sourced and matches GPT-4's performance51% by Dec
A viral, malicious AI-generated disinformation case occurs39% by Dec
Legislation to limit LLMs is introduced57% by Jan
An LLM-based major cyberattack occurs56% by Jan
A government issues a health warning or laws about AI companions55% by Jan
AI generates complete excel-based financial valuation models47% by Jan
OpenAI releases a Google Search competitor38% by Jan
Transformer-based AI systems accelerate deep learning progress35% by Jan
An AI music generator as good as DALL-E 3 is developed70% by Jan
OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind experiences a significant security incident57% by Jan
Next U.S. President signs an AI-related Executive Order within first 100 days50% by May
FDA authorizes 1,000 AI/ML medical devices50% by Oct
AI concern goes mainstream in the US50% by Dec
Apple introduces human-like on-device TTS64% by Dec
Large-scale protests occur over Deep Learning-generated content41% by Dec
Human narration for audiobooks becomes mostly unnecessary57% by Jan
AI financially impacts some US lawyers55% by Jan
LLM released by 2025 is dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic46% by Jan
US bans distribution of deepfakes of public persons35% by Jan
Deceptive alignment demonstrated by 202666% by Jan
US Federal Government bans sharing deepfake nudes56% by Jan
AI achieves a ≥98th percentile score on Mensa IQ test50% by Jul
AI is regularly used to diagnose complex diseases35% by Jul
Machines reach kindergartner-level LEGO building skills50% by Sep
Open-source AI wins a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad50% by Oct
AI solves over 80% of competition-level coding problems on the first try50% by Dec
AI accurately does taxes by end of 202659% by Dec
AI writes an article accepted by a prestigious Philosophy journal54% by Dec
AI bindingly arbitrates a dispute in the US50% by Dec
Protests against AI art in the US reach 1,000 participants65% by Jan
More than half of the US population works with AI daily36% by Jan
AI wins a Gold Medal in the International Olympiad in Informatics50% by Jun
China manufactures domestic EUV lithography equipment (used in chip production)50% by Sep
More people interact with AI via voice than text51% by Jan
AI generates a low-quality movie in response to a prompt58% by Jan
A humanoid robot causes a human death31% by Jan
500K humanoid robots are manufactured43% by Mar
AI achieves a perfect score on the Putnam Math Competition50% by May
An AI-generated film ranks #1 on a popular streaming service50% by May
False conviction in the US due to an AI-generated video36% by Jan
AI ranks as a top concern in Gallup's poll, comparable to abortion34% by Jan
AI ranks among top 5 voter issues for the 2028 election41% by Jan
AI creates a critically acclaimed feature film50% by Sep
An AI-generated book makes the NYT Best Seller list50% by Oct
AI publishes in a top 50 scientific journal50% by Oct
FDA approves an AI-developed cure for a major illness49% by Dec
An international AI regulatory agency is established70% by Jan
AI pilots an aircraft with human passengers autonomously66% by Jan
100k person anti-AI protest occurs52% by Jan
Backpropagation takes a back seat35% by Jan
AI works as a competent cook in any kitchen30% by Jan
David Chalmers believes in conscious AI57% by Jan
Neuralink achieves telepathy with its technology56% by Jan
Tesla Bots become available to US consumers50% by Apr
The first fully autonomous surgery on a human is performed50% by Jun
AI extends the English language37% by Mar
A supermarket operates fully with AI50% by Mar
Most Americans know someone who has dated an AI50% by Feb
AI achieves superhuman persuasion capabilities61% by Dec
AI solves the next Millennium Prize Problem41% by Dec
Slaughterbots kill 50 people outside military conflict70% by Jan
OpenAI reaches its profit cap for initial investors45% by Jan
AI is given rights in the US43% by Jan
AI catastrophe occurs (if it happens this century)50% by Jan
AI is mentioned in a major country's constitution50% by Jul
World GDP grows by >30% annually due to AI50% by Sep
An AI becomes CEO of a Fortune 500 company67% by Dec
A country legalizes marriage to an AI/Robot35% by Jan
Non-invasive brain-computer interfaces become common46% by Jan
A country bans human-driven cars for AI self-driving in a city center50% by Jan
AI writes 25% of NYT Best Selling Fiction45% by Feb
AI resolves the P vs NP problem34% by Dec
A religion with AI as a deity or priest attracts over 1 million followers62% by Jan
AI independently prescribes the majority of medication in the US50% by Sep
An AI wins a Nobel Prize50% by Dec
2024
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2025
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2026
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2027
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2028
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2029
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2030
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2031
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2032
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2033
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2034
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2035
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2036
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2037
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2038
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2039
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2040
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2041
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2042
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2043
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2044
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2045
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2046
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2047
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2048
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2049
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2050
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2051
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2052
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2053
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2054
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2055
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2056
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2057
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2058
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2059
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More from AI Digest
Showing 80 curated forecasts