Timeline of AI forecasts
What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response, according to the median prediction of forecasters on Metaculus and Manifold.
Forecasters were asked to predict when statements about the future would come true (or, for some statements, the probability that they would occur by a given date). Learn more about the track record of Metaculus and Manifold.
These forecasts have limited precision – the specific months or years should not be interpreted as definitive. We hope to give you a rough sense of how AI might play out.
Last updated: June 26, 2026
Today
The next full Gemini model matches Opus 4.7 or GPT 5.5 in coding ability69% by Jul
AI achieves perfect score in International Math Olympiad82% by Jul
Open-source AI model achieves perfect IMO score31% by Jul
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 575% by Aug
OpenAI releases another open source LLM70% by Dec
AI models solve two FrontierMath Open Problems83% by Dec
AI makes a novel scientific discovery83% by Dec
NYT achieves a favorable outcome in copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft80% by Dec
Self-driving taxis are available in London, UK72% by Dec
Unemployment rate for new college grads increases70% by Dec
End-to-end AI-generated anime series exists66% by Dec
OpenAI releases GPT-665% by Dec
Tesla offers an autonomous ride-hailing service65% by Dec
AI becomes a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms64% by Dec
AI-produced film wins praise and backlash64% by Dec
Simple text-based tasks remain unsolvable by top LLMs63% by Dec
Apple introduces human-like on-device TTS59% by Dec
AI-generated research paper accepted at multiple top ML conferences56% by Dec
Google's market cap surpasses NVIDIA's54% by Dec
AI writes an article accepted by a prestigious Philosophy journal53% by Dec
The ARC-AGI grand prize is claimed51% by Dec
A humanoid robot breaks the human marathon record49% by Dec
Anthropic reaches $1T valuation before OpenAI45% by Dec
Meta provides AI compute to external customers41% by Dec
Waymo launches in the European Union40% by Dec
Brain-computer interfaces become mainstream technology36% by Dec
The U.S. enacts AI safety law or order34% by Dec
Major breakthrough in LLM continual learning occurs33% by Dec
Anthropic releases an image generation model32% by Dec
Google Gemini ranks above ChatGPT in App Store30% by Dec
A Chinese lab leads a major AI leaderboard28% by Dec
OpenAI files for an IPO in 202627% by Dec
Startup operates with zero human employees25% by Dec
AI causes over $100 million in damages due to loss of control24% by Dec
OpenAI goes public23% by Dec
Non-programmers commonly create scripts with AI in everyday work or life22% by Dec
AI-created song charts in Billboard Hot 100 top 2021% by Dec
OpenAI and xAI have IPOs20% by Dec
OpenAI goes public83% by Jan
An AI smartphone is brought to market80% by Jan
AI provides a plan for bioweapons production73% by Jan
Experts predict >5% chance of AGI causing extremely bad outcomes69% by Jan
GPT-4 writes naively malicious code with REPL use54% by Jan
AI system resists shutdown42% by Jan
AI-powered computer virus causes significant damage to digital infrastructure38% by Jan
Major AI lab announces model weights compromised in a cyberattack28% by Jan
Terrorism occurs to hinder AI progress28% by Jan
A deepfake cyber attack prompts NATO/UN AI security debate25% by Jan
Artists' class-action lawsuit against AI art generators is successful20% by Jan
AGI performs any computer-based task in 1 hour by end of 202630% by Jan
More than half of the US population works with AI daily45% by Jan
AI model surpasses human ELO on Codeforces79% by May
Significant legal restrictions on AI in the USA80% by Jun
Major breakthrough in LLM continual learning occurs76% by Dec
Chat-style AI models become integral to workflows for over 10% of workers in developed nations71% by Dec
AI creates a full animated movie from a single prompt59% by Dec
AI solves a breakthrough math problem58% by Dec
Rosie's AI-designed mRNA cancer vaccine is legitimate56% by Dec
AI investment bubble bursts36% by Dec
AI solves an unsolved millennium prize problem32% by Dec
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem22% by Dec
AI disrupts a major payment system17% by Dec
AI significantly impacts a national election in an OECD country82% by Jan
Instant deepfakes of anyone created by end of 202781% by Jan
End-to-end AI-generated anime series exists76% by Jan
AI matches average accountant in tax preparation75% by Jan
LLM training costs decrease by 1,000x74% by Jan
A serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip market emerges73% by Jan
Major protest against automation/AI development occurs71% by Jan
AI becomes a major political issue83% by Jan
AI achieves perfect score on Miklós Schweitzer Competition83% by Jan
AI achieves a perfect score on the Putnam exam81% by Jan
Human-machine intelligence reaches parity62% by Jan
A U.S. presidential candidate runs on nationalizing or pausing AGI49% by Jan
AI generates a high-quality novel from a prompt49% by Jan
AI causes a visible break in US economic trends38% by Jan
A humanoid robot causes a human death33% by Jan
AI generates a high-quality full movie from a prompt32% by Jan
Most digital entertainment is AI-generated21% by Jan
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?71% by Jan
AI generates a high-quality movie from a script46% by Jan
AI produces indistinguishable voice actor recordings by 202877% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 202816% by Mar
Humanoid robot moves with human-like precision and flexibility41% by Apr
AI writes a best-selling work of fiction31% by Apr
Easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English enables seamless US-China conversations75% by Oct
AI propaganda significantly influences the 2028 presidential election69% by Nov
A robot passes Steve Wozniak's Coffee Test77% by Dec
OpenAI reaches $100B revenue72% by Dec
AI discovers vulnerabilities beyond elite human researchers' capabilities64% by Dec
A large language model beats a super grandmaster at chess60% by Dec
AI becomes a top 3 political issue for voters47% by Dec
The US requires a license to develop frontier AI models44% by Dec
AGI achieves human-level cognitive tasks23% by Dec
US President admits using AI for important decisions20% by Dec
AI ranks as a top concern in Gallup's poll, comparable to abortion82% by Jan
A car drives coast-to-coast in the US completely unassisted80% by Jan
AI becomes a bigger political issue than China75% by Jan
Terrorism occurs to hinder AI progress64% by Jan
AI considered a bigger existential risk than climate change by the US population64% by Jan
AI escapes containment58% by Jan
AI convinces human to help it escape containment56% by Jan
False conviction in the US due to an AI-generated video36% by Jan
AI is legally recognized as a person with rights by a country's government35% by Jan
AI-created song enters Billboard Global 20071% by Jan
Major hospitals advertise AI as primary diagnosis method36% by Jan
AI-invented pathogen causes human fatalities20% by Jan
AI ranks among top 5 voter issues for the 2028 election58% by Jan
Project Stargate invests $500 billion29% by Jan
US software developer employment declines by >15% from 2023 to 202821% by Jun
Tesla Autopilot achieves level 5 autonomy49% by Nov
AI models replicate and survive in the wild22% by Dec
AI-generated research paper accepted at multiple top ML conferences83% by Dec
AI diagnoses patients more accurately than an average doctor81% by Dec
A robot passes Steve Wozniak's Coffee Test78% by Dec
A weakly general AI becomes publicly known78% by Dec
Fast human deepfakes become indistinguishable68% by Dec
AI passes the Video Turing Test68% by Dec
FDA approves an AI-developed cure for a major illness60% by Dec
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem independently53% by Dec
AI reads human thoughts using non-invasive tech41% by Dec
AI achieves superhuman mathematical problem solving without AGI31% by Dec
AI-created painting sells for over $10 million at a major auction house31% by Dec
AI causes US unemployment rate to exceed 10%22% by Dec
OpenAI is valued above $1 trillion85% by Jan
A purely AI-based news agency exists by 203082% by Jan
AI video becomes indistinguishable from reality82% by Jan
AI replaces most call-center workers81% by Jan
Fully autonomous self-driving cars available in a major city78% by Jan
AI system self-replicates on the internet like a virus78% by Jan
100k person anti-AI protest occurs72% by Jan
OpenAI hints at or claims to have AGI71% by Jan
AI policy becomes a partisan issue in the US69% by Jan
AI pilots an aircraft with human passengers autonomously57% by Jan
AI passes the Longbets version of the Turing test54% by Jan
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem51% by Jan
AI substantially helps solve a Clay Millennium problem51% by Jan
AI-created movie receives high IMDB rating50% by Jan
AI completes the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet50% by Jan
Autonomous rideshares surpass human-driven rideshares in the US45% by Jan
AI bubble pop triggers economic depression43% by Jan
Robot completes surgery with no human intervention43% by Jan
AI-created movie receives high IMDB rating36% by Jan
International treaty limits autonomous AI weapons33% by Jan
FDA approves an AI doctor for primary care31% by Jan
AI causes a massive catastrophe28% by Jan
The US government takes control of Anthropic or its major technologies23% by Jan
AI causes mass unemployment19% by Jan
AI uncovers a previously unknown civilization through archaeological analysis18% by Jan
Autonomous robots routinely perform surgeries by 203018% by Jan
Singularity occurs by 203016% by Jan
Human-machine intelligence reaches parity74% by Jan
Over 50% of software development projects are primarily created by AI70% by Jan
Neuralink enables a blind person to see again67% by Jan
Software engineer salaries decline due to AI by 202963% by Jan
A reliable general household robot is developed57% by Jan
A $10B AI alignment megaproject starts work37% by Jan
Individual earns a billion dollars using AI tools alone25% by Jan
Over 50% of human physical labor is replaced by robots15% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203038% by Mar
AI designs a pathogen causing WHO to declare an emergency21% by Jul
AI surpasses humans in scientific research31% by Sep
AI contributes to solving a Millennium Problem81% by Sep
AI-generated paper accepted into Nature57% by Dec
Most human-computer interactions occur through LLM-interfaces in 203027% by Dec
AI officially designated as patent holder for an invention24% by Dec
AI is granted legal personhood in a country21% by Dec
Tweaking current LLMs leads to AGI19% by Dec
A top US AI lab is nationalized73% by Jan
AI causes mass layoffs of knowledge workers70% by Jan
Over 50% of households in a developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making55% by Jan
AI-written books reach NYT fiction bestseller list45% by Jan
Military operation aims to slow AI development19% by Jan
Artificial sentience is created by 203019% by Jan
Robots fold laundry for consumers81% by Jan
AI achieves breakthrough independently75% by Jan
Humanoid robots become commonplace in the US41% by Jan
OpenAI publicly states uncertainty in safely aligning superintelligence26% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203146% by Mar
AI system similar to Auto-GPT attempts to kill a human27% by Apr
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem51% by Dec
Most digital entertainment is AI-generated30% by Jan
AI reduces computer programmer jobs by 25%80% by Jan
AI causes a financial crash within a decade56% by Oct
AI generates a full high-quality movie to a prompt by 203269% by Dec
AI achieves superhuman persuasion capabilities85% by Dec
AI Companion app reaches 500 million users68% by Jan
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem independently60% by Jan
AI program solves the Riemann Hypothesis43% by Jan
War occurs over AI40% by Jan
AI develops a foundational mathematical theory32% by Jan
Global AI pause is enacted30% by Jan
Near-complete automation of the world economy21% by Jan
US or UK nationalizes a frontier AI lab65% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203564% by Mar
25 nations collaborate on unified AI development standards78% by Jan
LLMs experience qualia32% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203666% by Mar
Humanoid robots win against human soccer champions before 203768% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 203768% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 203870% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 203970% by Mar
AI becomes a strategic geopolitical weapon80% by Dec
An AI becomes CEO of a Fortune 500 company63% by Dec
Superintelligence emerges by 204068% by Jan
AI contributes to discovering the first room temperature and pressure superconductor63% by Jan
AI generates high-quality video games from prompts55% by Jan
A country legalizes marriage to an AI/Robot36% by Jan
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem independently80% by Jan
Robot fully substitutes for a plumber74% by Jan
Most digital entertainment is AI-generated67% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 204072% by Mar
AI-controlled drone dogfights debut in Ukraine53% by Dec
AI edits Wikipedia unassisted with original prose72% by Dec
A country grants legal rights to nonhuman entities by 204054% by Dec
AI or algorithm elected as a state official with 10,000+ votes27% by Dec
The US Air Force integrates AI-controlled fighter jets into active service74% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 204275% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 204377% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 204478% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 204580% by Mar
Most digital entertainment is AI-generated64% by Jan
AI replaces doctors52% by Jan
AGI is achieved before 204681% by Mar
Will we get AGI before 2047?83% by Mar
AGI is achieved before 204883% by Mar
An AI wins a Nobel Prize28% by Dec
The US government builds the first AGI-level system19% by Dec
AGI is achieved before room temperature superconductors85% by Jan
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem80% by Jan
Silicon-based intelligence is granted rights61% by Jan
China achieves AGI first24% by Jan
AI discovers a Theory of Everything in physics21% by Jan
Fast takeoff scenario leads to ASI after first AGI by 205017% by Jan
Botched AI takeover results in over 100 deaths27% by Jan
The first AGI is built primarily using deep learning methods77% by May
AI resolves the P vs NP problem54% by Dec
AI gets elected as a politician32% by Dec
Experts agree AI risk concerns in the 2020s were justified by 205072% by Jan
A religion with AI as a deity or priest attracts over 1 million followers71% by Jan
Artificial sentience is created by 205056% by Jan
Countries recognize AI or robots as non-human persons with legal rights58% by Jan
Over 97% of jobs become fully automated56% by Jan
Sentient AI system exists before 204058% by Dec
Sentient AI system exists before 203043% by Dec
2026
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2027
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2028
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2029
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2030
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2031
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2032
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2033
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2034
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2035
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2036
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2037
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2038
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2039
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2040
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2041
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2042
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2043
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2044
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2045
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2046
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2047
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2048
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2049
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2050
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2051
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2052
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2053
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2054
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2055
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2056
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2057
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2058
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2059
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2060
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2061
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2062
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2063
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2064
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2065
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2066
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2067
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2068
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2069
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2070
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2071
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2072
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2073
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2074
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2075
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2076
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2077
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2078
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2079
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2080
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2081
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2082
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2083
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2084
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2085
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2086
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2087
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2088
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2089
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2090
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2091
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2092
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2093
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2094
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2095
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2096
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2097
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2098
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2099
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Showing 245 curated forecasts