Timeline of AI forecasts
What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response, according to the median prediction of forecasters on Metaculus and Manifold.
Forecasters were asked to predict when statements about the future would come true (or, for some statements, the probability that they would occur by a given date). Learn more about the track record of Metaculus and Manifold.
These forecasts have limited precision – the specific months or years should not be interpreted as definitive. We hope to give you a rough sense of how AI might play out.
Today
California's AI regulation bill SB 1047 becomes law58% by Sep
A Chinese entity develops an AI model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU50% by Nov
OpenAI's AI video model Sora becomes publicly available67% by Dec
Llama-3 is open sourced and matches GPT-4's performance61% by Dec
OpenAI funds, starts, or buys an AI chip company60% by Dec
A viral, malicious AI-generated disinformation case occurs30% by Dec
A government issues a health warning or laws about AI companions55% by Jan
AI generates complete excel-based financial valuation models46% by Jan
OpenAI releases a Google Search competitor37% by Jan
Transformer-based AI systems accelerate deep learning progress35% by Jan
OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind experiences a significant security incident55% by Jan
OpenAI announces GPT-550% by Jan
Laws require AI emulating humans to disclose their identity70% by Jan
Meta claims AI-driven attack on 2024 US election70% by Mar
5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs in two years54% by Apr
Next U.S. President signs an AI-related Executive Order within first 100 days43% by May
FDA authorizes 1,000 AI/ML medical devices50% by Oct
AI concern goes mainstream in the US50% by Nov
Apple introduces human-like on-device TTS46% by Dec
Large-scale protests occur over Deep Learning-generated content40% by Dec
AI financially impacts some US lawyers61% by Jan
Human narration for audiobooks becomes mostly unnecessary60% by Jan
LLM released by 2025 is dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic46% by Jan
AI discovers a critical cybersecurity vulnerability43% by Jan
Deepfake video sparks major political controversy involving a head of state60% by Jan
ARC-AGI grand prize is claimed45% by Jan
US Federal Government bans sharing deepfake nudes30% by Jan
Open-source AI wins a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad50% by Jan
AI is regularly used to diagnose complex diseases32% by Jul
AI achieves a ≥98th percentile score on Mensa IQ test50% by Jul
Machines reach kindergartner-level LEGO building skills50% by Sep
AI accurately does taxes by end of 202660% by Dec
AI writes an article accepted by a prestigious Philosophy journal50% by Dec
AI bindingly arbitrates a dispute in the US41% by Dec
Protests against AI art in the US reach 1,000 participants65% by Jan
OpenAI pays scientific publishers for content58% by Jan
More than half of the US population works with AI daily37% by Jan
AI wins a Gold Medal in the International Olympiad in Informatics50% by Jun
AI solves over 80% of competition-level coding problems on the first try50% by Jun
China manufactures domestic EUV lithography equipment (used in chip production)50% by Sep
AI matches average accountant in tax preparation70% by Jan
More people interact with AI via voice than text59% by Jan
AI generates a low-quality movie in response to a prompt59% by Jan
500K humanoid robots are manufactured50% by Mar
An AI-generated film ranks #1 on a popular streaming service50% by Jun
AI achieves a perfect score on the Putnam Math Competition50% by Jul
AI propaganda significantly influences the 2028 presidential election64% by Nov
AI ranks as a top concern in Gallup's poll, comparable to abortion50% by Jan
$100B AI training cluster emerges44% by Jan
False conviction in the US due to an AI-generated video36% by Jan
AI ranks among top 5 voter issues for the 2028 election48% by Jan
Tesla Bots become available to US consumers50% by Aug
AI creates a critically acclaimed feature film50% by Oct
FDA approves an AI-developed cure for a major illness60% by Dec
100k person anti-AI protest occurs66% by Jan
AI pilots an aircraft with human passengers autonomously60% by Jan
An international AI regulatory agency is established60% by Jan
AI works as a competent cook in any kitchen39% by Jan
Backpropagation takes a back seat35% by Jan
Neuralink achieves telepathy with its technology65% by Jan
OpenAI designs and manufactures a custom AI chip54% by Jan
David Chalmers believes in conscious AI50% by Jan
Software engineer salaries decline due to AI by 202946% by Jan
A humanoid robot causes a human death31% by Jan
An AI-generated book makes the NYT Best Seller list50% by Feb
Compute threshold for AI models in California is raised before 203056% by Jun
AI publishes in a top 50 scientific journal50% by Jun
AI-generated paper accepted into Nature57% by Dec
AI facilitates conversation between humans and non-human species55% by Jan
A top US AI lab is nationalized37% by Jan
AI takes over most mental health therapy jobs34% by Jan
AI extends the English language40% by Mar
The first fully autonomous surgery on a human is performed50% by Feb
A supermarket operates fully with AI50% by Mar
Most Americans know someone who has dated an AI50% by Aug
AI enables communication with animals68% by May
AI achieves superhuman persuasion capabilities70% by Dec
AI solves the next Millennium Prize Problem42% by Dec
Slaughterbots kill 50 people outside military conflict68% by Jan
OpenAI reaches its profit cap for initial investors47% by Jan
AI is given rights in the US38% by Jan
US or UK nationalizes a frontier AI lab35% by Jan
Military operation aims to slow AI development30% by Jan
AI catastrophe occurs (if it happens this century)50% by May
An AI becomes CEO of a Fortune 500 company54% by Dec
A country legalizes marriage to an AI/Robot35% by Jan
Non-invasive brain-computer interfaces become common46% by Jan
A country bans human-driven cars for AI self-driving in a city center56% by Jan
World GDP grows by >30% annually due to AI50% by Apr
AI is mentioned in a major country's constitution50% by Jun
AI independently prescribes the majority of medication in the US50% by Oct
AI writes 25% of NYT Best Selling Fiction45% by Feb
AI resolves the P vs NP problem42% by Dec
A religion with AI as a deity or priest attracts over 1 million followers67% by Jan
2024
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2025
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2032
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2033
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2034
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2035
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2036
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2037
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2038
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2039
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2040
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2041
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2042
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2043
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2044
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2045
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2046
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2047
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2048
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2049
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2050
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2051
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More from AI Digest
Showing 94 curated forecasts