Timeline of AI forecasts

What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response, according to the median prediction of forecasters on Metaculus and Manifold.

Forecasters were asked to predict when statements about the future would come true (or, for some statements, the probability that they would occur by a given date). Learn more about the track record of Metaculus and Manifold.

These forecasts have limited precision – the specific months or years should not be interpreted as definitive. We hope to give you a rough sense of how AI might play out.

Today
OpenAI's AI video model Sora becomes publicly available64% by Dec
AI generates complete excel-based financial valuation models32% by Jan
Transformer-based AI systems accelerate deep learning progress32% by Jan
Laws require AI emulating humans to disclose their identity33% by Jan
OpenAI announces GPT-550% by Feb
5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs in two years53% by Apr
Next US President signs an AI-related Executive Order in first 100 days49% by May
FDA authorizes 1,000 AI/ML medical devices50% by Jun
Apple introduces human-like on-device TTS46% by Dec
Large-scale protests occur over Deep Learning-generated content38% by Dec
xAI joins voluntary commitment to share new models with AISI65% by Jan
LLM released by 2025 is dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic59% by Jan
AI financially impacts some US lawyers50% by Jan
AI discovers a critical cybersecurity vulnerability43% by Jan
Meta joins voluntary AI model-sharing commitment38% by Jan
A drug designed with AlphaFold-like AI passes Phase I trial37% by Jan
Deceptive alignment demonstrated by 202667% by Jan
Deepfake video sparks major political controversy involving a head of state61% by Jan
ARC-AGI grand prize is claimed58% by Jan
AI wins a Gold Medal in the International Olympiad in Informatics50% by Jan
US Federal Government bans sharing deepfake nudes47% by Jan
AI concern goes mainstream in the US50% by Feb
Prominent US politicians advocate banning open-weight AI models61% by Apr
OpenAI reaches a $300B valuation63% by Jul
AI is regularly used to diagnose complex diseases32% by Jul
Open-source AI wins a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad50% by Jul
Machines reach kindergartner-level LEGO building skills50% by Sep
AI accurately does taxes by end of 202663% by Dec
AI bindingly arbitrates a dispute in the US46% by Dec
AI writes an article accepted by a prestigious Philosophy journal45% by Dec
Protests against AI art in the US reach 1,000 participants62% by Jan
Models perform AI researcher/engineer duties40% by Jan
OpenAI pays scientific publishers for content69% by Jan
More than half of the US population works with AI daily47% by Jan
AI solves over 80% of competition-level coding problems on the first try50% by May
AI is recursively self-improving31% by Aug
China manufactures domestic EUV lithography equipment (used in chip production)50% by Nov
AI matches average accountant in tax preparation64% by Jan
AI achieves >85% on FrontierMath benchmark61% by Jan
A humanoid robot causes a human death39% by Jan
500K humanoid robots are manufactured38% by Mar
An AI-generated film ranks #1 on a popular streaming service50% by Sep
AI propaganda significantly influences the 2028 presidential election66% by Nov
$100B AI training cluster emerges69% by Jan
AI beats top Magic the Gathering human player50% by Jan
AI ranks as a top concern in Gallup's poll, comparable to abortion44% by Jan
False conviction in the US due to an AI-generated video36% by Jan
AI ranks among top 5 voter issues for the 2028 election46% by Jan
AI achieves a perfect score on the Putnam Math Competition50% by Jun
AI publishes in a top 50 scientific journal50% by Jul
Tesla Bots become available to US consumers50% by Aug
An AI-generated book makes the NYT Best Seller list50% by Oct
AI creates a critically acclaimed feature film50% by Dec
FDA approves an AI-developed cure for a major illness60% by Dec
Assassination attempt on a major AI lab CEO31% by Dec
AI pilots an aircraft with human passengers autonomously67% by Jan
An international AI regulatory agency is established60% by Jan
100k person anti-AI protest occurs36% by Jan
Backpropagation takes a back seat35% by Jan
FDA approves an AI doctor for primary care30% by Jan
Neuralink achieves telepathy with its technology64% by Jan
David Chalmers believes in conscious AI50% by Jan
Software engineer salaries decline due to AI by 202945% by Jan
A humanoid robot causes a human death38% by Jan
Compute threshold for AI models in California is raised before 203064% by Jun
AI-generated paper accepted into Nature58% by Dec
AI causes mass layoffs of knowledge workers68% by Jan
A top US AI lab is nationalized38% by Jan
AI takes over most mental health therapy jobs32% by Jan
AI extends the English language40% by Mar
The first fully autonomous surgery on a human is performed50% by Dec
Most Americans know someone who has dated an AI50% by Nov
A supermarket operates fully with AI50% by Jan
AI solves the next Millennium Prize Problem42% by Dec
Slaughterbots kill 50 people outside military conflict68% by Jan
OpenAI reaches its profit cap for initial investors50% by Jan
AI is given rights in the US38% by Jan
US or UK nationalizes a frontier AI lab44% by Jan
Military operation aims to slow AI development32% by Jan
AI catastrophe occurs (if it happens this century)50% by Nov
AI is mentioned in a major country's constitution50% by Aug
An AI becomes CEO of a Fortune 500 company53% by Dec
A country legalizes marriage to an AI/Robot45% by Jan
Non-invasive brain-computer interfaces become common48% by Jan
A country bans human-driven cars for AI self-driving in a city center60% by Jan
World GDP grows by >30% annually due to AI50% by Dec
AI independently prescribes the majority of medication in the US50% by Dec
AI writes 25% of NYT Best Selling Fiction44% by Feb
A religion with AI as a deity or priest attracts over 1 million followers67% by Jan
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2033
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2036
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2037
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2040
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2041
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2051
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Showing 89 curated forecasts