Timeline of AI forecasts

What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response, according to the median prediction of forecasters on Metaculus and Manifold.

Forecasters were asked to predict when statements about the future would come true (or, for some statements, the probability that they would occur by a given date). Learn more about the track record of Metaculus and Manifold.

These forecasts have limited precision – the specific months or years should not be interpreted as definitive. We hope to give you a rough sense of how AI might play out.

Today
California's AI regulation bill SB 1047 becomes law35% by Sep
A Chinese entity develops an AI model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU50% by Nov
AI becomes a major topic in the 2024 US presidential debates35% by Nov
OpenAI announces GPT-550% by Nov
Llama-3 is open sourced and matches GPT-4's performance60% by Dec
OpenAI funds, starts, or buys an AI chip company52% by Dec
A viral, malicious AI-generated disinformation case occurs35% by Dec
A government issues a health warning or laws about AI companions55% by Jan
An LLM-based major cyberattack occurs54% by Jan
OpenAI releases a Google Search competitor50% by Jan
AI generates complete excel-based financial valuation models47% by Jan
Transformer-based AI systems accelerate deep learning progress35% by Jan
OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind experiences a significant security incident57% by Jan
OpenAI releases a product for direct computer control56% by Jan
Next U.S. President signs an AI-related Executive Order within first 100 days49% by May
FDA authorizes 1,000 AI/ML medical devices50% by Oct
Apple introduces human-like on-device TTS64% by Dec
Large-scale protests occur over Deep Learning-generated content40% by Dec
AI financially impacts some US lawyers61% by Jan
Human narration for audiobooks becomes mostly unnecessary57% by Jan
LLM released by 2025 is dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic44% by Jan
US bans distribution of deepfakes of public persons35% by Jan
Deceptive alignment demonstrated by 202668% by Jan
US Federal Government bans sharing deepfake nudes54% by Jan
AI concern goes mainstream in the US50% by Feb
AI is regularly used to diagnose complex diseases35% by Jul
AI achieves a ≥98th percentile score on Mensa IQ test50% by Jul
Machines reach kindergartner-level LEGO building skills50% by Sep
AI accurately does taxes by end of 202659% by Dec
AI writes an article accepted by a prestigious Philosophy journal53% by Dec
AI bindingly arbitrates a dispute in the US43% by Dec
Protests against AI art in the US reach 1,000 participants60% by Jan
More than half of the US population works with AI daily39% by Jan
Open-source AI wins a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad50% by Feb
AI solves over 80% of competition-level coding problems on the first try50% by Feb
AI wins a Gold Medal in the International Olympiad in Informatics50% by Jun
AI matches average accountant in tax preparation69% by Jan
More people interact with AI via voice than text53% by Jan
AI generates a low-quality movie in response to a prompt63% by Jan
An AI-generated film ranks #1 on a popular streaming service50% by Feb
500K humanoid robots are manufactured50% by Mar
China manufactures domestic EUV lithography equipment (used in chip production)50% by Mar
AI achieves a perfect score on the Putnam Math Competition50% by May
AI propaganda significantly influences the 2028 presidential election64% by Nov
AI beats top Magic the Gathering human player67% by Jan
AI ranks as a top concern in Gallup's poll, comparable to abortion42% by Jan
False conviction in the US due to an AI-generated video36% by Jan
AI ranks among top 5 voter issues for the 2028 election42% by Jan
Tesla Bots become available to US consumers50% by Jul
AI creates a critically acclaimed feature film50% by Sep
FDA approves an AI-developed cure for a major illness50% by Dec
An international AI regulatory agency is established68% by Jan
AI pilots an aircraft with human passengers autonomously63% by Jan
Backpropagation takes a back seat35% by Jan
FDA approves an AI doctor for primary care35% by Jan
AI works as a competent cook in any kitchen30% by Jan
Real-time text-to-video generation becomes viable66% by Jan
Neuralink achieves telepathy with its technology65% by Jan
David Chalmers believes in conscious AI57% by Jan
Software engineer salaries decline due to AI by 202937% by Jan
A humanoid robot causes a human death31% by Jan
An AI-generated book makes the NYT Best Seller list50% by Apr
AI publishes in a top 50 scientific journal50% by Jun
The first fully autonomous surgery on a human is performed50% by Oct
AI-generated paper accepted into Nature58% by Dec
AI takes over most mental health therapy jobs33% by Jan
AI extends the English language47% by Mar
A supermarket operates fully with AI50% by Mar
Most Americans know someone who has dated an AI50% by Nov
AI achieves superhuman persuasion capabilities61% by Dec
AI solves the next Millennium Prize Problem41% by Dec
OpenAI reaches its profit cap for initial investors45% by Jan
AI is given rights in the US38% by Jan
AI catastrophe occurs (if it happens this century)50% by Jun
AI is mentioned in a major country's constitution50% by Jul
World GDP grows by >30% annually due to AI50% by Sep
An AI becomes CEO of a Fortune 500 company61% by Dec
A country legalizes marriage to an AI/Robot35% by Jan
Non-invasive brain-computer interfaces become common46% by Jan
A country bans human-driven cars for AI self-driving in a city center40% by Jan
AI independently prescribes the majority of medication in the US50% by Apr
AI writes 25% of NYT Best Selling Fiction45% by Feb
AI resolves the P vs NP problem41% by Dec
A religion with AI as a deity or priest attracts over 1 million followers62% by Jan
An AI wins a Nobel Prize50% by Nov
2024
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2025
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2032
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2033
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2034
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2035
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2036
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2037
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2038
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2039
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2040
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2041
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2042
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2043
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2044
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2045
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2046
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2047
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2048
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2049
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2050
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2051
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2052
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2053
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2054
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2055
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Showing 85 curated forecasts