Timeline of AI forecasts
What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response, according to the median prediction of forecasters on Metaculus and Manifold.
Forecasters were asked to predict when statements about the future would come true (or, for some statements, the probability that they would occur by a given date). Learn more about the track record of Metaculus and Manifold.
These forecasts have limited precision – the specific months or years should not be interpreted as definitive. We hope to give you a rough sense of how AI might play out.
Last updated: April 23, 2025
Today
AI scores 85% on the ARC benchmark50% by Sep
The US enacts export controls on generative AI software65% by Dec
China has the top open LLM63% by Dec
Agents like OpenAI's Operator are practically useful55% by Dec
OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench36% by Dec
The ClaudePlaysPokemon stream completes Pokémon Red52% by Jan
OpenAI identifies high AI persuasion risk52% by Jan
OpenAI launches a more expensive model than o1-pro39% by Jan
OpenAI stops sharing new models with AISI before release39% by Jan
US bans distribution of deepfakes of public persons38% by Jan
Deepfake video sparks major political controversy involving a head of state55% by Jan
AI achieves 90% on SWE-Bench Verified50% by Jan
Chinese AI surpasses o3's Frontier Math score35% by Jan
AI achieves a ≥98th percentile score on Mensa IQ test50% by Mar
Fewer US programming jobs than a year ago53% by Mar
Prominent US politicians advocate banning open-weight AI models37% by Apr
Open-source AI wins a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad50% by Jun
AI concern goes mainstream in the US50% by Jun
AI is regularly used to diagnose complex diseases31% by Jul
Machines reach kindergartner-level LEGO building skills50% by Dec
AI writes an article accepted by a prestigious Philosophy journal52% by Dec
AI surpasses humans in coding ability40% by Dec
The ARC-AGI grand prize is claimed31% by Dec
AI achieves >80% on FrontierMath benchmark62% by Jan
AI-generated song tops Billboard Hot 10041% by Jan
More than half of the US population works with AI daily42% by Jan
AI solves over 80% of competition-level coding problems on the first try50% by Apr
AI is recursively self-improving40% by Aug
China manufactures domestic EUV lithography equipment (used in chip production)50% by Nov
AI "drop-in remote workers" achieved70% by Dec
AI matches average accountant in tax preparation64% by Jan
AI achieves >85% on FrontierMath benchmark65% by Jan
A humanoid robot causes a human death33% by Jan
500K humanoid robots are manufactured39% by Mar
AI publishes in a top 50 scientific journal50% by Sep
Tech giant offers AI-conducted university course50% by Sep
AI propaganda significantly influences the 2028 presidential election70% by Nov
AI can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers50% by Nov
AI ranks as a top concern in Gallup's poll, comparable to abortion57% by Jan
False conviction in the US due to an AI-generated video36% by Jan
AI ranks among top 5 voter issues for the 2028 election66% by Jan
An AI-generated book makes the NYT Best Seller list50% by Apr
An AI-generated film ranks #1 on a popular streaming service50% by Jun
AI achieves a perfect score on the Putnam Math Competition50% by Jun
Tesla Bots become available to US consumers50% by Aug
AI virally self-replicates on the open internet70% by Jan
International aggression over AI occurs64% by Jan
AI system makes $50m by investing $1m63% by Jan
An international AI regulatory agency is established50% by Jan
Backpropagation takes a back seat34% by Jan
Neuralink achieves telepathy with its technology69% by Jan
David Chalmers believes in conscious AI57% by Jan
A humanoid robot causes a human death48% by Jan
The majority of entertainment is AI-generated32% by Jan
US government maintains AI safety incident list50% by Jan
Compute threshold for AI models in California is raised before 203053% by Jun
AI-generated paper accepted into Nature58% by Dec
AI training cluster reaches $1 trillion value65% by Jan
AI extends the English language54% by Mar
A supermarket operates fully with AI50% by May
AI creates a critically acclaimed feature film50% by Aug
The first fully autonomous surgery on a human is performed50% by Dec
Most Americans know someone who has dated an AI50% by Jan
AI enables communication with animals66% by May
AI solves the next Millennium Prize Problem42% by Dec
OpenAI reaches its profit cap for initial investors51% by Jan
US or UK nationalizes a frontier AI lab45% by Jan
AI catastrophe occurs (if it happens this century)50% by Jul
AI solves a Millennium Prize Problem50% by Aug
Military operation aims to slow AI development32% by Jan
AI is mentioned in a major country's constitution50% by Apr
World GDP grows by >30% annually due to AI50% by Jun
A country legalizes marriage to an AI/Robot44% by Jan
Non-invasive brain-computer interfaces become common42% by Jan
A country bans human-driven cars for AI self-driving in a city center49% by Jan
AI independently prescribes the majority of medication in the US50% by Feb
AI writes 25% of NYT Best Selling Fiction33% by Feb
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2046
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2050
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Showing 77 curated forecasts